Combinations in Weather Forecasting
Combinations are a big part of how we get things done at R/GA. From the Nike+ FuelBand to Google Wallet to McCormick Flavorprint, our greatest successes have come from interesting combinations of diverse people with varying skills. Combinations of ad tech and creative intuition. Combinations of ideas that create tension and, ultimately, breakthroughs that propel our clients’ businesses further.
But on February 13 and 14, I saw the importance of combinations play out in a more immediate – and elemental – way: the weather.
On the night before Valentine’s Day and into that Friday, Winter Storm Pax pounded the Northeast with 15 to 20 inches of snow. On February 6, a full week before the event, the potential impact of the storm was brought to my attention by Jonathan Carr (@severeNJwx), an amateur weather enthusiast with a professional background in computer science and information systems.
As the days passed, JC, as he is known by his followers, stepped up his warnings, as the local TV weather people repeated their refrain: four to eight inches of snow, with some rain.
Why did all the local TV and radio stations, Yahoo, and even the National Weather Service call it wrong? Because those outlets rely on just one weather model, the Global Forecast System (GFS). It’s the only global model for which all output is available free, over the Internet.
By contrast, JC and other meteorologists like Steven DiMartino (@NYNJPAWeather) use a combination of multiple weather models (NAM, GFS, Euro, Canadian, UKMET, and others) to make their amazingly accurate forecasts. In fact, JC has correctly called most of the big storms since 2010, including Superstorm Sandy.
In the wake of Pax, the traditional one-source media outlets were licking their wounds, and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was blasted for not closing city schools. (The mayor, by the way, blamed the National Weather Service.)
Combinations of weather models help mitigate inaccuracy. Be wary of forecasts that are only based on one model. If nearly every model is on board with a solution, then you can be more confident in the forecast.
Combinations FTW!
Winter’s not over yet, so if you live in the Northeast, follow @severeNJwx and @NYNJPAWeather on Twitter to experience the power of combinations in your day-to-day life.